Here is my CV.
Working Papers
Electoral Accountability and State Violence: The Political Legacy of the Marikana Massacre (with Daniel de Kadt and Melissa Sands) [pdf]
Abstract: Democratic states often wield coercive force against ordinary people, yet little is known about the electoral consequences of such violence in the communities directly effected. Using geo-coded polling station data and a difference-in-differences design that leverages temporal and spatial variation, we analyze how incumbent electoral support was affected by South Africa's Marikana massacre, one of the most high-profile examples of state violence in contemporary democratic Africa. We find evidence that in the communities directly affected by the massacre the incumbent party was dramatically punished at the polls. Using geo-referenced survey data to investigate the sources of this change, we find that our results are almost exclusively driven by voters switching to an opposition party that formed in the wake of the massacre, rather than (de-)mobilization. We also find, contrary to some academic and popular narratives, no evidence of attitudinal shifts around institutional trust or views of democracy and participation.
Precolonial States and Development: Evidence from Agriculture in Africa (with Aditya Dasgupta) [pdf]
Abstract: One of the major economic transformations of the twentieth century was the green revolution, a technological revolution in agricultural productivity owing to the spread of newly developed cultivars known as high-yielding variety (HYV) crops. But why did some countries, notably those in Asia, experience the green revolution but not others, like most countries in Africa? In this paper, we argue that historically transmitted state capacity played a critical role. Successful implementation of the green revolution depended upon the pre-existence of powerful agricultural bureaucracies that developed under pre-colonial and colonial regimes that relied upon the taxation of agriculture. The argument is tested with a comparative analysis of HYV crop adoption across countries as well as a spatial analysis of the impact of pre-colonial state boundaries in Africa on remote-sensing measures of agricultural modernization based on satellite imagery. The findings highlight the central role that historically transmitted state capacity plays in long-term technological change and economic development.
Colonial Treaties and the Politics of Belonging in Nigeria
Abstract: Why are some Africans more likely to identify with a national identity than their ethnic identity? I argue that where states are built on already existing polities, members of existing polities choose between identifying with the new national identity or maintaining their existing identity as their primary identity. Citizens identify with the national identity when their group does not have a historical grievance from joining the nation. To illustrate my arguments, I look to the formation of Nigeria, the result of British colonialism in the area. I show that areas where the British negotiated treaties that expropriated lands from indigenes without compensation are more likely to use their ethnic identity rather than the national identity. My theory and results suggest that Nigerians today have historical memory and grievance against the colonization process that manifests itself in their rejection of the national identity.
Subnational Authoritarianism in a Hybrid Regime: Evidence from Local Government Elections in Nigeria (with Nicholas Angelo Cruz) [pdf]
Abstract: We observe that national and state elections take place in Nigeria at regular intervals, but this is not the case for local government elections. Local government elections fall under the jurisdiction of state governors who may refuse to hold them. We explain why these subnational autocrats refuse to hold elections using existing explanations of why national autocrats allow elections. We find that subnational autocrats in Nigeria are more likely to refuse to hold local government elections where they do not face competition. In states where the governor is part of the majority group (political party, ethnic groups, or religious groups) they are more likely to refuse elections.
Working Papers
Electoral Accountability and State Violence: The Political Legacy of the Marikana Massacre (with Daniel de Kadt and Melissa Sands) [pdf]
Abstract: Democratic states often wield coercive force against ordinary people, yet little is known about the electoral consequences of such violence in the communities directly effected. Using geo-coded polling station data and a difference-in-differences design that leverages temporal and spatial variation, we analyze how incumbent electoral support was affected by South Africa's Marikana massacre, one of the most high-profile examples of state violence in contemporary democratic Africa. We find evidence that in the communities directly affected by the massacre the incumbent party was dramatically punished at the polls. Using geo-referenced survey data to investigate the sources of this change, we find that our results are almost exclusively driven by voters switching to an opposition party that formed in the wake of the massacre, rather than (de-)mobilization. We also find, contrary to some academic and popular narratives, no evidence of attitudinal shifts around institutional trust or views of democracy and participation.
Precolonial States and Development: Evidence from Agriculture in Africa (with Aditya Dasgupta) [pdf]
Abstract: One of the major economic transformations of the twentieth century was the green revolution, a technological revolution in agricultural productivity owing to the spread of newly developed cultivars known as high-yielding variety (HYV) crops. But why did some countries, notably those in Asia, experience the green revolution but not others, like most countries in Africa? In this paper, we argue that historically transmitted state capacity played a critical role. Successful implementation of the green revolution depended upon the pre-existence of powerful agricultural bureaucracies that developed under pre-colonial and colonial regimes that relied upon the taxation of agriculture. The argument is tested with a comparative analysis of HYV crop adoption across countries as well as a spatial analysis of the impact of pre-colonial state boundaries in Africa on remote-sensing measures of agricultural modernization based on satellite imagery. The findings highlight the central role that historically transmitted state capacity plays in long-term technological change and economic development.
Colonial Treaties and the Politics of Belonging in Nigeria
Abstract: Why are some Africans more likely to identify with a national identity than their ethnic identity? I argue that where states are built on already existing polities, members of existing polities choose between identifying with the new national identity or maintaining their existing identity as their primary identity. Citizens identify with the national identity when their group does not have a historical grievance from joining the nation. To illustrate my arguments, I look to the formation of Nigeria, the result of British colonialism in the area. I show that areas where the British negotiated treaties that expropriated lands from indigenes without compensation are more likely to use their ethnic identity rather than the national identity. My theory and results suggest that Nigerians today have historical memory and grievance against the colonization process that manifests itself in their rejection of the national identity.
Subnational Authoritarianism in a Hybrid Regime: Evidence from Local Government Elections in Nigeria (with Nicholas Angelo Cruz) [pdf]
Abstract: We observe that national and state elections take place in Nigeria at regular intervals, but this is not the case for local government elections. Local government elections fall under the jurisdiction of state governors who may refuse to hold them. We explain why these subnational autocrats refuse to hold elections using existing explanations of why national autocrats allow elections. We find that subnational autocrats in Nigeria are more likely to refuse to hold local government elections where they do not face competition. In states where the governor is part of the majority group (political party, ethnic groups, or religious groups) they are more likely to refuse elections.